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Table 4 Effectiveness of each variable in predicting ovulation time in the validation dataset using classification trees model

From: Preovulatory progesterone levels are the top indicator for ovulation prediction based on machine learning model evaluation: a retrospective study

P4

    
 

72 h (Real)

48 h (Real)

24 h (Real)

Total

72 h (Predictive)

35

34

2

 

48 h (Predictive)

15

47

5

 

24 h (Predictive)

4

40

144

 

Total

54

121

151

326

Accuracy rate

0.6481

0.3884

0.9536

0.6933

Sensitivity

0.4930

0.7015

0.7660

 

Specificity

0.9255

0.7143

0.9493

 

PPV

0.6481

0.3884

0.9536

 

NPV

0.8676

0.9024

0.7486

 

LH

    
 

72 h (Real)

48 h (Real)

24 h (Real)

Total

72 h (Predictive)

40

12

2

 

48 h (Predictive)

13

55

16

 

24 h (Predictive)

1

54

133

 

Total

54

121

151

326

Accuracy rate

0.7407

0.4545

0.8808

0.6994

Sensitivity

0.7407

0.6548

0.7074

 

Specificity

0.9485

0.7273

0.8696

 

PPV

0.7407

0.4545

0.8808

 

NPV

0.9485

0.8585

0.6857

 

E2

    
 

72 h (Real)

48 h (Real)

24 h (Real)

Total

72 h (Predictive)

0

0

0

 

48 h (Predictive)

14

70

41

 

24 h (Predictive)

40

51

110

 

Total

54

121

151

326

Accuracy rate

NA

0.5785

0.7285

0.5521

Sensitivity

NA

0.5600

0.5473

 

Specificity

0.8344

0.7463

0.6720

 

PPV

NA

0.5785

0.7285

 

NPV

NA

0.7317

0.4800

 

Diameter

    
 

72 h (Real)

48 h (Real)

24 h (Real)

Total

72 h (Predictive)

0

0

0

 

48 h (Predictive)

47

64

52

 

24 h (Predictive)

7

52

99

 

Total

54

121

151

326

Accuracy rate

NA

0.5289

0.6556

0.50

Sensitivity

NA

0.3926

0.6074

 

Specificity

0.8344

0.6503

0.6810

 

PPV

NA

0.5289

0.6556

 

NPV

NA

0.5171

0.6343

 
  1. Notes: 72 h (Real): number of records in 72 h group in real situation; 48 h (Real): number of records in 48 h group in real situation; 24 h (Real): number of records in 24 h group in real situation; 72 h (Predictive): number of records predicted in the 72 h group according to the classification trees model; 48 h (Predictive): number of records predicted in the 48 h group according to the classification trees model; 24 h (Predictive): number of records predicted in the 24 h group according to the classification trees model. PPV: positive predictive value; NPV: negative predictive value