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Table 3 Comparisons of screening performances between traditional and optimized joint screening strategies for ovarian cancer

From: Risk-stratified CA125 screening integrating CA125 trajectories, trajectory-specific progression and transvaginal ultrasound for ovarian cancer

Methods

Cases

Non-cases

Total

Sensitivity*

Specificity*

Positivity†

Youden

PPV

NPV

%(95%CI)

P

%(95%CI)

P

%(95%CI)

P

%

%(95%CI)

%(95%CI)

Traditional strategy 1 (positive screen defined as only any positive TVU)

 Positive

139

13,720

13,859

55.6

(49.2–61.8)

Ref.

51.4

(50.8–51.9)

Ref.

48.7

(48.1–49.3)

Ref.

7.0

1.0

(0.85–1.19)

99.2

(99.1–99.4)

 Negative

111

14,486

14,597

   

 Total

250

28,206

28,456

   

Traditional strategy 2 (positive screen defined as any positive TVU and CA125 above diagnostic criteria)

 Positive

152

14,074

14,226

60.8

(54.4–66.8)

< 0.001

50.1

(49.5–50.7)

< 0.001

50.0

(49.4–50.6)

< 0.001

10.9

1.1

(0.91–1.25)

99.3

(99.2–99.4)

 Negative

98

14,132

14,230

   

 Total

250

28,206

28,456

   

Optimized strategy 1 (positive screen defined as any positive TVU and CA125 above optimal cut-off value)

 Positive

199

19,133

19,332

79.6

(74.0-84.3)

< 0.001

32.2

(31.6–32.7)

< 0.001

67.9

(67.4–68.5)

< 0.001

11.8

1.0

(0.89–1.18)

99.4

(99.3–99.6)

 Negative

51

9073

9124

   

 Total

250

28,206

28,456

   

Optimized strategy 2 (based on strategy 1 and excluding CA125LP as positive screen)

 Positive

190

17,402

17,592

76.0

(70.1–81.1)

< 0.001

38.3

(37.7–38.9)

< 0.001

61.8

(61.3–62.4)

< 0.001

14.3

1.1

(0.93–1.25)

99.4

(99.3–99.6)

 Negative

60

10,804

10,864

   

 Total

250

28,206

28,456

   

Optimized strategy 3 (based on strategy 2 and excluding negative RelVel in either CA125SP or CA125GP as positive screen)

 Positive

161

14,447

14,608

64.4

(58.1–70.3)

< 0.001

48.8

(48.2–49.4)

< 0.001

51.3

(50.8–51.9)

< 0.001

13.2

1.1

(0.94–1.29)

99.4

(99.2–99.5)

 Negative

89

13,759

13,848

   

 Total

250

28,206

28,456

   
  1. Note: CA125LP, loss of positive CA125; CA125SP, stable positive CA125; CA125GP, gain of positive CA125; RelVel, relative velocity; PPV and NPV, positive and negative prediction value. *, compared with McNemer tests; †, compared with Pearson chi-square tests